Our Managing Director Paul
Northmore reviews the commentary received following the UK's decision
to leave the EU.
The people of the
UK
have voted to leave the European Union.
Not only is this is major financial decision for the country but this will also
have wider implications for markets globally.
We have already seen an expected change with the value of the pound plunging
but the message to our clients is 'Don't Panic'.
We have received articles today from Investment commentators.
It is still early days to comment confidently on the financial situation we
will find ourselves in as we exit, but we are assured that the
UK economy can
handle this transition.
Neil Woodford has dismissed fears over the impact of the decision, concluding
the long-term economic future of the country will be unaffected by the vote.
Bank of England - 'We are well prepared for this'
The Bank of England says it expects market volatility after the Brexit vote but
that the
UK
economy can handle it.
Speaking at a press conference, Bank of England governor Mark Carney says:
“Inevitably,
there will be a period of uncertainty and adjustment following this result.
There will be no initial change in the way our people can travel, in the way
our goods can move or the way our services can be sold.
And it will take some time for the United Kingdom
to establish new relationships with Europe and
the rest of the world.”
Carney added the Bank expects “some market and economic
volatility” as those new relationships are struck.
He added: “But we are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank
of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the Chancellor
and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning.
The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those
markets adjust and the UK
economy moves forward.”
What happens next?
The vote to leave followed by David Cameron’s announcement
that he will resign before October's Conservative Party Conference, sets in
motion a process that will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal
mechanism for withdrawal from the EU. Unless a withdrawal agreement is reached
earlier, this will start a two year period of negotiation. During that time the
UK
will still be a member of the EU and bound by its rules and treaties.
So what does this all mean for your finances?
Mortgages
With regards to mortgages it really could go either way.
It's possible that the Bank of England may consider raising interest rates to
counteract the reducing value of the pound, with the Treasury forecasting
a rise between 0.7% and 1.1% in borrowing costs which David Cameron claimed may
see increase of up to £1000 per year.
However in the case of a severe shock to the UK economy, the Bank of England
might have to consider reducing rates. In which case, the cost of lending could
fall.
House prices
According to the BBC The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that
Brexit could cause a sharp drop in house prices. This was on the expectation that
the cost of mortgages would rise.
The Treasury has said house prices could be hit by
between 10% and 18% over the next two years, compared to where they otherwise
would have been. This would be good news for first-time buyers, but not so
great for existing homeowners.
These projections would be incorrect if the Bank of England were forced to cut
interest rates.
Pensions
In the short term we are told that Brexit is unlikely to have a significant
impact on the UK
pension plans. However, it will give the opportunity for the UK legislation
to deviate from EU requirements in the future.
In the build up to the referendum the prime minister said that a Brexit would threatened
the 'triple lock' for state pensions - the agreement by which pensions increase
by at least the level of earnings, inflation or 2.5% every year.
Investments and Savings
The investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown has told its clients that it is
impossible to know the long-term economic implications of Brexit on investments.
"We cannot assume an 'Out' vote will be bad for the long-term prospects of
the stock market" it said.
UK
shares may become less attractive to foreign investors and would therefore
decline in value. However shares may
rise with company profits and with the pound weakening, exporters may benefit
so the value of shares could rise.
It really is too early to say exactly what will happen. Changes are already taking place as we
write. Please rest assured that we are
keeping our eyes firmly on developments in order to advise you on your
finances.
If you would like to discuss your situation please contact your adviser by
email or by calling the Manning and Company office on 01752 837950 or for Anthony
Trueman and Co 01822 859368.